(Continued from the last issue-"8 Sorry" in China's auto market in 2020 (on) | stand up and speak )
3. Sorry, Chinese brands still have a "bottom building" process
At the end of 2014, after experiencing the "12 consecutive declines", Chinese brand passenger cars ushered in a wave of rebound. With strong performance in the SUV field, the market share rose all the way. In December 2017, the market share reached 48.8%. However, entering 2018, the market share of Chinese branded passenger cars began to decline again. It fell below the 40% mark in August 2018, and in May 2019 it fell to the lowest point in the past three years, which was 36.2%.
As of November 2019, sales of Chinese branded passenger cars have been "20 consecutive declines" year-on-year.
From January to November 2019, the cumulative sales of Chinese brand passenger cars was 7.478 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%, and the passenger car market share was only 38.9%.
In the first 11 months of 2019, the sales of Chinese brand passenger cars each month decreased year-on-year.
In 2020, after the market share of "20 or 21 consecutive declines", will Chinese brand passenger cars reproduce the rebound in 2015?
the answer is negative.
In the "12 consecutive drops" in 2014, in the sing of the Chinese brand, the host wrote a comment entitled "New students in the 12 consecutive drops." At that time, while the market share had dropped for 12 consecutive years, I saw the self-revolution of Chinese brands in technology and design, and a number of outstanding models began to shine.
But now, although Chinese brands are still working hard and their products are better, it is clear that compared with the most powerful joint venture brands, the gap has not narrowed further.
At the same time, the products of the joint venture brand began to be really ruthless. 5 years ago, there were very few joint venture brand SUVs less than 150,000 yuan, especially the mainstream joint venture brands. Now you can see how many 15 are launched by Honda, Toyota and Volkswagen SUV within ten thousand yuan. Therefore, the sales of many hot-selling Chinese brand SUVs suddenly fell sharply, or even cut off.
In November 2019, the domestic sales of domestic cars ranked the top 14 as joint-venture models. In the past, Chinese brands still ranked among the top ten from time to time.
The last "12 consecutive drops" is the same as the "20 consecutive drops". It is a market baptism and a rebirth of a Chinese fire after the rapid development of Chinese brands.
On the whole, the market share of Chinese brands may have bottomed out, but it may take some time to bounce back, because there are still some outstanding Chinese brands that should be eliminated and not yet eliminated, and they are working hard to improve. It will take a while to be recognized by the market and truly accepted.
Therefore, it may take some time for Chinese brands with a market share of less than 40%, but this is not a bad thing. After going through enough beats and tempering, the Chinese car brands that really go to Wu Cunjing will definitely get more and more. The more rational and confident Chinese consumers are, the more favored they are.
Really outstanding high-end models of Chinese brands such as Chuanqi GM8 have gradually begun to gain market recognition.
This process, of course, will be more difficult than 5 years ago, because it is closer to the opponent and the market space is smaller, but this will be the process of truly outstanding Chinese car brands to stand out, and also the true power of Chinese brands in terms of product strength- It's not just cost-effective-it can gradually rival the process of strong joint venture brands.
In the end, there will be no doubt that a world-class car brand belonging to China will be born in this process.
Of course, this will not happen in 2020, but it will begin in 2020.
Qingzhu suggested: In this process, Chinese brands should not care about the gains and losses of one city and one place. They must focus on carefully creating their own star products and have their own "Corolla", "Golf", "Camry", "CR -V ". 10 models sell 300,000, not as good as one model sells 100,000.
4. Sorry, the proportion of new energy vehicles must not reach 10%
The latest "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" (draft for comments) proposes that by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach about 25%.
I remember that the leaders of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2018 proposed the goal of "8% in 2019 and 10% in 2020".
The China Automobile Association slightly defended (wu) and guarded (shi) a little, did not dare to set a new energy vehicle sales target for 2019 based on the 8% share. They initially set a target of 1.6 million units. After experiencing high growth in the first half of the year (The reason is the subsidy for buying before the decline). Since July, the sales of new energy vehicles have continued to grow negatively. The China Automobile Association has to reduce its target to 1.5 million units, but in the end, only 1.04 million were sold in the first 11 months of 2019. As of the time of writing, the full-year data has not yet been released, but the probability is a negative growth. In the end, it may be less than 1.2 million units.
In other words, the operation is fierce, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2019 is only 4.5%.
Beginning in July 2019, sales of new energy vehicles continued to decline, and October sales were close to "cutting".
The subsidy will continue to decline, and the negative word of mouth of pure electric vehicles-false standard mileage, low second-hand residual value, and inconvenient use-are still accumulating, and I wonder how the proportion of new energy vehicles will double in 2020 Turn 10%? !!
Leaders and experts are broad-minded, have a large structure, rarely look back, and only move forward. It is not important that the goals of 2019 have not been achieved, because the past has passed, what is important is the future. They use the same firm and unquestionable tone as before to tell us that "the market prospect of electric vehicles is very clear" and "pure electric vehicles will become the main body of the market in 2035."
The expert who said that, his eyes were so determined, his tone was unquestionable, and I was almost convinced. However, it is a little regrettable that so far, the experts' predictions about new energy vehicles have never seemed correct!
Of course, experts also compare chicken thieves. First, he rarely predicts the year after next year. He always predicts 2025 in 2015 and 2035 in 2019. It is estimated that he will start to predict 2055 by 2035; and it is clear that they have fully absorbed the teacher Xu Changming. Lessons, I do n’t mention specific numbers easily. For example, this time he said that “pure electric vehicles will become the main body of the market in 2035” —there is plenty of room for manoeuvre. More than 50% is the main body, but 30% is not the main body. What?
The power of interpretation lies with him, and experts always hold the initiative firmly. In contrast, Xu Changming, who always gives specific numbers when predicting sales, is still too tender.
(Given the embarrassing reality of the new energy vehicle market, experts also have to admit that “there is a prosperous period of about ten years” and have to admit that “hybrid power is also an important technical line.” Before, they never mentioned hybrids. This is probably a kind of passive progress.)
Qing Zhu hates this kind of chicken thief. I like to be simple and clear-the proportion of new energy vehicles in 2020 will certainly not reach 10%. It is estimated that there is not much objection, because after all, only 4.5% in 2019.
The question is 2025? Sorry, we can't even reach 25%!
Qing Zhu dare to make this bet with any experts-in the Chinese market in 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will definitely not reach 25%.
The possible ratio should be between 10% and 15%.
(This is the forecast of the World Energy Agency in 2016. In 2030, the global pure electric and FCV passenger cars will only account for nearly 10%, and hybrids and intermixes will be close to 40%. Qingzhu thinks this is a more reliable forecast.)
This is not my bad electric car. In fact, as early as 2005-earlier than most people-I proposed, "The new energy revolution with electric drive as the core, that is, electrification, belongs to the automotive industry. One of the three major trends. "
Note, however, that "electrification" does not mean pure electricity. Hybrid, plug-in, and fuel cells are all "electrification."
Pure electricity is limited by the convenience of use-simply speaking, the energy supply time is too long, and it is only suitable for short-distance mobile tools. If there is a fixed parking space at home or the unit, a charging pile can be installed. Pure electric is very good as a second car s Choice. But the problem lies in this. How many households in China have fixed parking spaces that can be installed with charging stations? How many families have the conditions to own two or more private cars?
This limitation determines that pure electric can only be a choice of a small number of people, and it can only be a supplement to the market. From the perspective of energy saving and environmental protection, hybrid is a better choice at this stage. Plugging in is also good-charging if you can charge, refueling when not charging, without any restrictions on use; in the longer term, it belongs to hydrogen fuel cells The reason for the car is also very simple. Once the infrastructure is complete, it does not have any limitations in terms of convenience. Even if there are charging piles everywhere, you can't fully charge the electricity in three or five minutes.
(Many people like to take the example of Norway. Young people went to Norway in 2014 to inspect the local electric vehicle market. The proportion of electric vehicles in Norway is indeed high. However, the market environment in Norway is different and it has no reference to China. Moreover, even in Norway The electric car is basically the second or even the third car in the family.)
When it comes to new energy, many people always focus on the industry and policies, and rarely start from the actual needs of consumers. This is ridiculous!
After all, cars are for sale to consumers. You do n’t think it ’s good, but I want it to be good!
Looking back at history, any technological alternative in the field of travel is one-way-that is, to give consumers greater freedom of travel, not the other way around.
We asked ourselves, did pure electric do it?
Qing Zhu suggested: Pure electricity can and should be done, but manufacturers should not think about when pure electricity will completely replace fuel vehicles, and the government will ban fuel vehicles someday. Did cars replace carriages in the past because the government banned them? Is iPhone subverting Nokia because the government has banned Nokia? Manufacturers don't have to think too much about the proportion of pure electric vehicles in 2025. What you need to wonder is whether your pure electric vehicle has won BYD and Tesla. Even if the proportion of pure electric vehicles is only 10% in 2025, that is about 3 million vehicles. The question is, how much can you eat for these 3 million vehicles?
5. Sorry, the new forces are here to rest.
Li Bin suddenly became the "worst person in 2019". To be honest, in my opinion, "Li Bin" here is not a person, but a representative of the new car power.
From this perspective, "Li Bin" is indeed the worst person in 2019-at least one of them.
But for them, it will be even worse 2020, or 2021-if they have 2021.
I have never been optimistic about these new car-building forces, but it is definitely not because I have any personal hatred with them.
Emotionally, I wish all entrepreneurs success, IPO, unicorns, and eventually industry giants, among the world's top 500, and all the people in the world are happy.
However, I know too much about the automotive industry, so I don't see any chance that they will succeed.
The reason for this is about a year and a half ago, I persuaded in "Li Shufu, Jin Yu's good words, but unfortunately, the new forces of car-building can't look back". Article 4-
1. The new forces have no real technological innovation;
2. Pure electric is not a new category, and traditional manufacturers can also make EVs;
3. The auto market has said goodbye to high growth, and new forces have missed market opportunities;
4. The threshold of the automotive industry is extremely high. It is difficult to build a good car, and it is even more difficult to make a profit.
Among them, the second most disadvantageous to the new forces is the second one. Traditional OEMs can build electric vehicles, and overall, they build electric vehicles that are better and more reliable than the new forces, and there is no doubt that the cost is lower. .
Automobile is a large-scale industry. A new force that can only produce and sell 10,000 electric vehicles a year, its cost must be higher than that of a traditional OEM that produces and sells 1 million vehicles a year. Production may also be only 10,000.
Let's look at the sales of domestic new energy vehicles in 2019-
In November, the top ten models sold were all from traditional car manufacturers. Baojun E100 sold 9809 units in the month. Among the new forces, Weilai ES6 had the most sales in the month, with only 1407 units. Seeing such a sales comparison, I wonder if the new forces dare to say that they are subversive?
The top ten EV models sold in November 2019 are all from traditional manufacturers.
GAC New Energy can be described as a sudden rise. AION S, which was listed on April 27 (after the subsidy, sells for 138,800-58,800 yuan), has ranked first in pure electric vehicle sales for more than 130,000 yuan in a continuous price range. AION LX is a Tesla Model X that exceeds 800,000 yuan in acceleration performance and cruising range. Which new force did it?
There are new car-building forces everywhere, and the global perspective is unique to China. The current situation is very clear. Those who dominate the new energy vehicle industry are still those traditional OEMs in the future. A large number of new car-making forces have been destined to turn back, and those huge social investments are also destined to be largely doomed.
The new forces made the mine, which has not yet burst in 2019, but it is estimated that it will not be covered in 2020. This is a very large mine. I don't know who should take this responsibility.
Some time ago, the debate between Yang Zhenning (above right) and Academician Wang Yifang (above left) on whether to build a large electronic collider became a hot topic on the Internet. The focus of the debate was that the investment was too large-it was said to cost US $ 20 billion, and It may not produce results. Yang Zhenning believes that for a developing country like China, this is really a huge waste of resources, and this money can do many other more meaningful things.
Is n’t 20 billion US dollars worth 140 billion yuan? In the past few years, the subsidies we have paid to those low-end pure electric vehicles have already exceeded this amount, right? I really prefer the country to take this money and let Academician Wang build a large electronic collider for real scientists to play. It is better than the picture below-this is a real waste.
(The Jing A brand electric buses were abandoned in a remote corner of Nan'ao Island, Shenzhen. After deceiving subsidies, the lives of these electric cars are over, but maybe the manufacturer is not the only one.)
In 2020, the new forces can wash and rest, but who should fill this huge pit that has been dug too deeply?
Qing Zhu's suggestion: It's not a way to stay firm, and the valuation will only get lower and lower. It's better to find a way to sell yourself as soon as possible-if you can sell it.
(to be continued)
Text | Qing Zhu Back to Sohu, see more